How Cosmo Sports works
Getting around Predictions Reading the numbers The Model tab Games Comets Alerts Picks Betting terms Getting around
The bar at the bottom has five stops. Today shows every game across the leagues. Scores opens the league you looked at last; switch leagues with the chips at the top. Picks has the Daily 3 and your record against the model. Following gathers your teams. More has Ask Cosmo, search, settings and this guide. In a league, the tabs are Games, Standings, News, Leaders, Ratings, Model and Predict .
How the predictions work
Every league has its own model, built the same way as the tennis one: walk through every game in date order, record what was known about both teams before each game, fit the model on older seasons and test it on seasons it never saw.
What the team models know before a game: an Elo rating that moves after every result (by more for upsets and big wins) and drifts back toward average between seasons; an opponent-adjusted scoring margin , where recent games count most; offense and defense ; form over the last 10 games; rest (and back-to-backs in the NBA and NHL); home advantage ; and a factor for each sport: starting pitchers in MLB (runs allowed in their recent starts), starting quarterback continuity in the NFL, shot share in the NHL, shots on target in the Premier League and shooting in the NBA. A factor is kept only if it improves the predictions on a separate validation season.
The Premier League model predicts each side's goals, which gives win, draw and loss chances, the likeliest scores, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Every model also projects each side's score, so you get a fair spread and total.
Tennis goes further still. Every player has an Elo rating : a number that goes up when they win and down when they lose, by more when the result is a surprise. Cosmo Sports keeps one overall rating and one for each surface, built from every tour-level, Challenger, WTA 125, ITF and qualifying match since 2012.
A model then combines 20 factors, including those ratings, serve and return, head-to-head, momentum, rest, workload, age, experience, height, home crowd and the Grand Slam stage. Each factor's weight was learned from 2015–2023 matches and tested on 2024–26 matches the model never saw, where it picks about two-thirds of winners.
Reading the numbers
Win chance is the model's estimate, not a certainty: a 70% favorite still loses 3 times in 10. Fair price is the betting price that would exactly match that chance. In Why the model leans this way , each bar is how far one factor moves the win chance on its own, toward the away team (left) or the home team (right). The projected score comes with the typical miss on unseen games, so you can see how much a single game varies.
The Model tab
Each league's report card: how often it picked the winner on seasons it never saw, its log-loss and Brier scores (lower is better; they punish confident misses), the same numbers for Elo alone and, where we have them, for the betting market on the same games. The calibration chart checks that when the model says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time. What the model weighs shows how much each factor helps.
Games, box scores and replays
Tap any game for its page: an animated field that replays each play, the win-probability chart with its turning points, highlight clips, the box score, team stats and game info. Before and during a game, Game info shows the model's reasons, the projected score and how the model compares with the betting line. Tap ☆ next to a team to follow it. 🎧 Listen in a live game reads each play aloud like a radio call.
Comets
Comets (in the top chips and in More) has articles and takes from Cosmo Sports, written for everyone who uses the app. The newest one also shows on Today, and with notifications on you'll hear when a new one is published (turn that off in Settings). Share any article with its link.
Alerts and the morning briefing
Turn on alerts in Settings (on iPhone, add the app to your home screen first). You'll hear when your teams start, score, head into a close finish and finish, plus a short briefing each morning. The spoiler shield hides scores in the app and in alerts until you tap to reveal them.
Picks
The Daily 3 is the day's three closest calls. Pick a winner in each before they start, keep a streak, and send your picks to a friend. Every pick you make anywhere is graded and compared with the model's.
Betting terms
Bookmaker's cut: the margin built into the odds; Cosmo Sports removes it to find the market's true view. Edge: how much higher the model's chance is than the market's. Fair price: the odds that match the model's own chance. Closing line value: whether the odds moved your way before the match started, the most reliable early sign of a real edge.
Privacy
Your settings are stored only on your device. There are no accounts, ads or tracking.
Please bet responsibly
Predictions are estimates. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and if gambling stops being fun, contact a support service such as 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or BeGambleAware (UK).
Match data: Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0), official tournament draws, and live-score feeds. Cosmo Sports is independent and not affiliated with the ATP, WTA or any tournament.